Support pressure is a significant factor which influences on stability of excavation face in a shallow circular tunnel driven by a pressurized shield, which is also a key point in reliability analysis. FLAC3D simulation and response surface methodology is utilized for the reliability index β for ultimate state. Both soil shear strength parameters are considered as random variables as the ultimate state studying and also taking into account the statistical correlation between cohesion and internal friction angle. Finally, the assumption of uncorrelated variables was found conservative in comparison to the assumption of negatively correlated variables.