天津地区抗浮设防水位的确定研究

杜占磊; 刘晓磊

doi:10.20265/j.cnki.issn.1007-2993.2024-0273

天津地区抗浮设防水位的确定研究

doi: 10.20265/j.cnki.issn.1007-2993.2024-0273

天津市勘察设计院集团有限公司，天津　300191

基金项目: 天津市科技计划项目（15ZXCXSF00070）

详细信息

作者简介:
杜占磊，男，1978年生，大学本科，高级工程师，主要从事岩土工程勘察等方面的工作。E-mail：xiaogoudagou@163.com

中图分类号: TU46
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- 文章访问数: 41
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- PDF下载量: 18
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-06-19
- 修回日期: 2024-08-09
- 录用日期: 2024-10-29
- 刊出日期: 2025-08-08

Determination of the groundwater level for anti-floating in the Tianjin area

Tianjin Survey Design Institute Group Co., Ltd., Tianjin 300191, China

摘要

摘要: 根据天津地区地下水长期观测资料，系统分析了天津地区地下水位现状及动态变化规律，采用GM（1，1）灰色预测模型对天津中心城区地下水最高水位进行了预测，给出了天津地区最高水位标高变化情况及抗浮设防水位的建议值；定量分析了天津北部山地丘陵区、堆积平原区、海岸潮间带区及特殊地区的抗浮设防水位确定方法，给出了抗浮设防水位的地区经验值。研究结果表明：（1）2023年天津地区地下水最高水位标高为1.0～7.0 m，水位埋深为1.0～3.0 m，与2019—2023年地下水最高水位分布范围及趋势基本一致。（2）中心城区预测水位与原始观测水位变化趋势基本保持一致，且大部分地区呈下降趋势，抗浮设防水位标高一般为1.8～3.6 m，总体上西北部、东南部高，东北部、西南部低。（3）对于天津市区周边等无资料的低标高地区，抗浮设防水位可取设计室外地坪标高下0.50 m，对于地势低洼、地面填高、地面挖低等地区，抗浮设防水位宜取设计室外地坪标高。
- 抗浮设防水位 /
- 水位动态变化 /
- 历史最高水位 /
- 地下水
Abstract: According to the long-term observation data of groundwater in the Tianjin area, the current situation and dynamic change law of groundwater level in the Tianjin area were systematically analyzed. The maximum groundwater level in the central urban area of Tianjin was predicted by using the GM (1,1) grey prediction model, and the variation of the maximum water level elevation in the Tianjin area and the recommended anti-floating level were given. The determination method of anti-floating water level in mountainous and hilly areas, accumulation plain areas, coastal intertidal zones, and special areas in northern Tianjin was quantitatively analyzed, and the regional empirical value of anti-floating water level was given. The results show that: (1) the maximum groundwater level elevation in Tianjin in 2023 is 1.0~7.0 m, and the buried depth is 1.0~3.0 m, which is consistent with the distribution range and trend of the maximum groundwater level from 2019 to 2023. (2) The variation trend of the predicted water level in the central urban area is consistent with the original observation water level, and most areas show a downward trend. The anti-floating water level elevation is generally 1.8~3.6 m, which is generally high in the northwest and southeast, and low in the northeast and southwest. (3) For areas with low elevation without data such as the surrounding area of Tianjin city, the anti-floating water level can be taken as 0.50 m below the designed outdoor floor elevation. For areas with low-lying terrain, high ground filling, and low ground excavation, the anti-floating water level should be taken as the designed outdoor floor elevation.
- groundwater level for anti-floating /
- dynamic variation of groundwater level /
- historical maximum groundwater level /
- groundwater

HTML全文

图 1 2023年地下水最高水位标高等值线图

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图 2 2023年地下水最高水位埋深等值线图

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图 3 2019—2023年地下水最高水位标高等值线图

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图 4 2019—2023年地下水最高水位埋深等值线图

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图 5 典型观测井点水位变化趋势预测

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图 6 中心城区抗浮设防水位标高等值线图

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表 1 GM（1，1）模型精度

序号精度P⁰/% 占比/%

1 85≤P⁰<90 1.6
2 90≤P⁰<95 10.4
3 95≤P⁰≤100 88.0

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表 2 GM（1，1）模型的后验差比

序号后验差比C 占比/%

1 C≤0.35 70.4
2 0.35<C≤0.50 20.0
3 0.50<C≤0.65 6.4
4 0.65<C 3.2

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表 3 GM（1，1）模型的小误差概率

序号小误差概率P 占比/%

1 0.95≤P 82.4
2 0.80≤P<0.95 8.0
3 0.70≤P<0.80 4.8
4 P<0.70 4.8

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表 4 GM（1，1）模型的精度等级

序号模型精度等级占比/%

1 Ⅰ 71.2
2 Ⅱ 16.8
3 Ⅲ 4.8
4 Ⅳ 7.2

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