承德地区水资源承载力综合评价

景志华; 刘文波; 张明宇; 杨瑞; 王鹏

doi:10.20265/j.cnki.issn.1007-2993.2024-0458

承德地区水资源承载力综合评价

doi: 10.20265/j.cnki.issn.1007-2993.2024-0458

景志华^{1, 2,},
刘文波^3, ,,
张明宇^{1, 2},
杨瑞^{1, 2},
王鹏^{1, 2}

1.
华北地质勘查局五一四地质大队，河北承德　067000
2.
河北省地质资源勘探开发与生态保护重点实验室，河北承德　067000
3.
中国地质环境监测院，北京　100081

基金项目: 津华勘办–滦河上游水文过程演变机理及水源涵养能力强化研究（HK2022-B17）；中国地质调查局项目承德市生态文明示范区综合地质调查（DD20190822）

详细信息

作者简介:
景志华，男，1987年生，大学本科，高级工程师，主要从事基岩山区水资源评价工作。E-mail：632057486@qq.com

通讯作者:
刘文波，男，1977年生，博士研究生，教授级高级工程师，主要从事环境水资源环境方面的研究工作。E-mail：106690009@qq.com

中图分类号: P641
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-10-10
- 修回日期: 2025-02-28
- 录用日期: 2025-04-09
- 网络出版日期: 2025-12-08
- 刊出日期: 2025-12-08

Comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in Chengde area

Jing Zhihua^{1, 2
,},
Liu Wenbo^{3
, ,},
Zhang Mingyu^{1, 2},
Yang Rui^{1, 2},
Wang Peng^{1, 2}

1.
514 Brigade of North China Geological Exploration Bureau, Chengde 067000, Hebei, China
2.
Hebei Key Laboratory of Geological Resources Exploration and Ecological Protection, Chengde 067000, Hebei, China
3.
China Geological Environment Monitoring Institute, Beijing 100081, China

摘要

摘要: 承德地区作为京津冀重要的水源涵养区和生态屏障，其水资源承载力对区域可持续发展与生态安全至关重要。本研究基于承德市全域水资源供需关系、质量状况及地下水位动态监测数据，提出以供水比例、氮汇负荷及地下水位变幅为核心的三要素评价模型，结合层次分析法确定指标权重，系统评估了43个小流域的水资源承载力空间分异特征。结果表明：承德市、承德县及隆化县周边流域因农业灌溉用水占比高（62%）、局部氮负荷偏高及地下水开采压力较大（年均降幅>0.5 m）等问题，水资源承载力相对较低；而围场县、丰宁县等北部区域因供水充足、水质稳定且水位波动较小，呈现较高承载力。研究揭示了城镇化进程与农业活动对承载力的复合影响，并建议通过分区管控、监测体系优化及跨区域协同机制提升水资源管理效能。该方法可为中小尺度区域水资源可持续利用提供科学参考。
- 承德地区 /
- 水资源承载力 /
- 三要素模型 /
- 氮汇负荷 /
- 地下水位变幅
Abstract: As a critical water conservation area and ecological barrier in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) of Chengde is vital for regional sustainable development and ecological security. This study proposed a three-factor evaluation model (water supply ratio, nitrogen pollution load, and groundwater level variation) based on monitoring data of water supply-demand relationships, water quality, and groundwater dynamics in Chengde. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was applied to determine indicator weights, and the spatial heterogeneity of WRCC across 43 small watersheds was systematically evaluated. Results demonstrate that watersheds around Chengde City, Chengde County, and Longhua County exhibited relatively low WRCC due to high agricultural water use (62%), partial nitrogen load accumulation, and groundwater over-extraction pressure (annual decline >0.5 m). In contrast, northern regions such as Weichang County and Fengning County showed higher WRCC owing to sufficient water supply, stable water quality, and minimal groundwater level fluctuations. The study highlighted the combined effects of urbanization and agricultural practices on WRCC and proposed strategies, including zoning management, monitoring system refinement, and inter-regional coordination to enhance water resource governance. This method provides a scientific foundation for sustainable water resource utilization in medium- and small-scale regions.
- Chengde area /
- water resources carrying capacity /
- three-factor model /
- nitrogen pollution load /
- groundwater level variation

HTML全文

图 1 60年以来承德市总水资源趋势图

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图 2 水资源总量呈现供水紧张的市县

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图 3 水资源属性表征社会经济、水环境与水生态的评价方法示意图

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图 4 承德地区43个小流域承载力评价成果图

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表 1 供水/水资源总量占比w单项承载能力分级表

标准分级值	供水/水资源总量占比w	单项承载能力分级
1	w<0.25	高
2	0.25≤w<0.5	较高
3	0.5≤w<0.75	中等
4	0.75≤w<1.0	较低
5	w≥1.0	低

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表 2 NH₄⁺/NO₃⁻超标倍数单项承载能力分级表

标准分级值	NH₄⁺/NO₃⁻超标倍数E	单项承载能力分级
1	E<1.0	高
2	1.0≤E<2.5	较高
3	2.5≤E<5.0	中等
4	5.0≤E<10.0	较低
5	E≥10.0	低

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表 3 年际水位变幅单项承载能力分级表

标准分级值	年际水位变幅Δh/m	单项承载能力分级
5	Δh<−0.75	低
4	−0.75≤Δh<−0.3	较低
3	−0.3≤Δh<0	中等
2	0≤Δh<0.5	较高
1	Δh≥0.5	高

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表 4 主要指标的涵义及权重选取

编号	指标	表征内容	属性	指标权重
T1	供水/水资源总量占比/%	社会经济对水资源的需求	−	0.375
T2	地下水位年际升幅/m	地下水供水强度；满足生态需水	＋	0.25
T3	NO₃⁻/氨氮超标倍数	水环境	−	0.375

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表 5 单项承载能力分级及空间计算结果表

序号	次亚系统名称及编号	年内均	丰变均	枯水期变幅	供水占比	供水占比分级	枯水期变幅(m)分级	N 超标倍数	N超标倍数分级	承载能力评价结果
1	吐里根河次亚系统(Ⅰ1-2)	0.13	0.02	−0.07	0.38	2	3	0.36	1	1.88
2	阴河次亚系统（Ⅲ1-1）	0.06	0.39	0.67	0.38	2	1	2.14	2	1.75
3	小滦河上游次亚系统(Ⅰ1-3)	0.17	0.52	0.39	0.38	2	2	0.75	1	1.63
4	伊逊河中上游次亚系统(Ⅰ3-2)	0.29	−0.07	−0.25	0.57	3	3	7.44	4	3.38
5	乌力代河次亚系统（Ⅲ1-2）				0.38	2	2	0.10	1	1.63
6	蚁蚂吐河次亚系统(Ⅰ3-1)	−0.02	0.06	0.33	0.57	3	2	6.29	4	3.13
7	小滦河下游次亚系统(Ⅰ1-4)	0.35	0.04	−0.37	0.38	2	4	14.95	5	3.63
8	西路噶河次亚系统（Ⅲ1-3）				0.38	2	0	0.10	1	1.13
9	大滦河次亚系统(Ⅰ1-1)	0.41	0.52	0.18	0.47	2	2	0.99	1	1.63
10	闪电河次亚系统(Ⅰ1-6)	−0.28	1.51	0.02	0.47	2	2	4.23	3	2.38
11	滦河上游次亚系统(Ⅰ1-5)	0.20	−0.08	0.13	0.77	4	2	0.00	1	2.38
12	武烈河上游次亚系统(Ⅰ4-1)	0.46	0.38	0.14	0.62	3	2	1.87	2	2.38
13	潮河上游次亚系统（Ⅱ1-1）	0.76	0.7	0.11	0.47	2	2	11.65	5	3.13
14	兴洲河上游次亚系统(Ⅰ2-1)	0.42	0.54	0.45	0.47	2	2	2.75	3	2.38
15	老哈河下游次亚系统（Ⅲ2-2）	−0.17	−0.77	−0.19	0.61	3	3	1.33	2	2.63
16	老哈河上游次亚系统（Ⅲ2-1）	0.13	−0.33	−0.003	0.61	3	3	3.58	3	3.00
17	汤河次亚系统（Ⅱ2-1）	0.41	−0.4	−0.9	0.47	2	5	0.49	1	2.38
18	伊逊河下游次亚系统(Ⅰ3-3)	0.13	−0.08	0.16	0.77	4	2	17.32	5	3.88
19	榆树林子次亚系统（Ⅳ1-1）				0.61	3	4	2.95	3	2.25
20	下板城次亚系统（Ⅰ6-2）	0.21	−0.08	0.01	0.48	2	2	57.26	5	3.13
21	潮河下游次亚系统（Ⅱ1-2）	0.94	0.53	0.07	0.63	3	2	2.52	3	2.75
22	大鹿沟次亚系统（Ⅳ1-2）				0.61	3	3	0.10	1	1.50
23	瀑河上游次亚系统(Ⅰ8-1)	0.44	−0.02	0.13	0.61	3	2	3.95	3	2.75
24	武烈河下游次亚系统(Ⅰ4-2)	0.20	0.39	0.29	1.36	5	2	13.41	5	4.25
25	天河次亚系统（Ⅱ2-2）				0.47	2	2	0.10	1	1.13
26	青龙河上游次亚系统(Ⅰ11-1)				0.61	3	2	0.10	1	1.50
27	六沟次亚系统（Ⅰ6-1）	0.35	−0.22	−0.12	0.61	3	3	0.10	1	2.25
28	兴洲河下游次亚系统(Ⅰ2-2)	0.69	0.67	0.68	0.78	4	1	4.53	3	2.88
29	青龙河上游次亚系统(Ⅰ11-1)1				0.61	3	2	0.10	1	1.50
30	柴白河次亚系统(Ⅰ5-1)	0.67	0.22	−1.06	0.48	2	5	7.24	4	3.50
31	瀑河下游次亚系统(Ⅰ8-2)	0.74	0.42	0.16	0.55	3	2	4.92	3	2.75
32	青龙河中游次亚系统(Ⅰ11-2)				0.55	3	2	0.10	1	1.50
33	瀑河下游次亚系统(Ⅰ8-2)1	−2.36	−0.8	0.17	0.48	2	2	4.00	3	2.38
34	车河次亚系统(Ⅰ7-2)	0.43	0.21	0.03	0.13	1	2	8.15	4	2.38
35	兴隆次亚系统(Ⅰ7-1)	0.46	−0.03	−0.22	0.13	1	3	3.28	3	2.25
36	清水河次亚系统(Ⅱ3-1)	0.55	0.28	0.28	0.13	1	2	0.10	1	1.25
37	长河次亚系统(Ⅰ10-1)	1.09	0.88	0.13	0.55	3	2	0.10	1	2.00
38	横河次亚系统(Ⅰ9-1)	0.78	0.28	−0.15	0.13	1	3	1.55	2	1.88
39	二道沟次亚系统(Ⅰ9-3)				0.13	1	1	0.90	1	0.75
40	南天门次亚系统(Ⅰ9-2)	1.59	1.01	−0.12	0.13	1	3	0.87	1	1.50
41	铧尖次亚系统(Ⅰ10-2)				0.55	3	1	0.50	1	1.50
42	沙河次亚系统(Ⅱ3-3)				0.13	1	1	1.96	2	1.13
43	泃河次亚系统(Ⅱ3-2)				0.13	1	1	1.79	2	1.13
注：“N超标倍数”为“NH₄⁺/NO₃⁻超标倍数”简称；“N超标倍数分级”为“NH₄⁺/NO₃⁻超标倍数分级”简称。

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