Correlation between rainfall and surface displacement of shallow loess landslides: a case study of Dongzhangpo Village landslide, Xi’an
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摘要: 东张坡村滑坡属降雨型浅层黄土滑坡。为揭示降雨引发浅层黄土滑坡变形的规律，进而为区域浅层黄土滑坡雨季预警提供依据，对该滑坡开展降雨–土体含水率–坡体变形监测和关联性分析。研究结果表明：在降雨量出现峰值的工况下，滑坡体表层水平位移及垂直位移基本呈现峰值，从降雨与坡体位移变化趋势上分析，东张坡村滑坡属典型降雨型滑坡；皮尔逊相关系数法分析表明，地表下0.2～4.2 m深度内土体含水率与降雨量的相关性关系为极强相关，土体含水率变化的滞后时间介于30～196 h，且随着埋藏深度的增大，含水率随降雨量变化的滞后时间逐渐增大；地表位移与深度0.2 m处土体含水率增量为极强相关，与深度0.7，1.2，1.5 m处土体含水率增量为中等强度相关，与深度2.2，3.2，4.2 m处土体含水率增量为弱相关，表明该滑坡变形以浅表层位移为主；从地表位移随含水率增长的滞后性方面看，各深度峰值相关系数均出现在24 h内，滞后性很小，表明在土体含水率增长后的很短时间内坡体即会发生变形。Abstract: The Dongzhangpo Village landslide is a rainfall-triggered shallow loess landslide. To reveal the deformation mechanism of shallow loess landslides induced by rainfall and provide a basis for the early warning of regional shallow loess landslides during the rainy season, monitoring and correlation analysis of rainfall, soil moisture content and slope deformation were carried out on this landslide. The results show that the horizontal and vertical displacements on the landslide surface basically reach their peaks under the condition of rainfall peaks. According to the variation trends of rainfall and slope displacement, the Dongzhangpo Village landslide is a typical rainfall-triggered landslide. The Pearson correlation coefficient analysis indicates that the soil moisture content at depths of 0.2~4.2 m below the ground surface has an extremely strong correlation with rainfall. The lag time of soil moisture content variation ranges from 30 to 196 h, and the lag time gradually increases with the increase of burial depth. The surface displacement has an extremely strong correlation with the increment of soil moisture content at 0.2 m depth, a moderate correlation with that at 0.7 m, 1.2 m and 1.5 m depths, and a weak correlation with that at 2.2 m, 3.2 m and 4.2 m depths, indicating that the landslide deformation is dominated by shallow surface displacement. In terms of the lag of surface displacement behind the increase of moisture content, the peak correlation coefficients at all depths appear within 24 h with very small lag, showing that slope deformation occurs shortly after the increase of soil moisture content.
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Key words:
- moisture content /
- precipitation /
- ground surface deformation /
- correlation
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图 1 东张坡村滑坡全貌（镜像210°）
Figure 1. Panoramic view of Dongzhangpo Village landslide (mirror image at 210°)
图 2 东张坡村滑坡地形图
Figure 2. Complete topographic panoprama of Dongzhangpo Village landslide
图 3 东张坡村滑坡工程地质剖面图
Figure 3. Engineering geological section of Dongzhangpo Village landslide
图 4 东张坡村滑坡监测设备平面布设示意图
Figure 4. Schematic plan of monitoring equipment layout for Dongzhangpo Village landslide
图 5 东张坡村滑坡区月累计降雨量图
Figure 5. Monthly cumulative rainfall map of Dongzhangpo Village landslide area
图 6 东张坡村滑坡体水平和垂直位移累计变形量年度变化趋势图
Figure 6. Annual variation trend chart of cumulative horizontal and vertical displacement deformation of Dongzhangpo Village landslide mass
图 7 东张坡村滑坡体水平和垂直位移月累计增量趋势图
Figure 7. Monthly cumulative increment trend chart of horizontal and vertical displacement of Dongzhangpo Village landslide mass
图 8 东张坡村滑坡体不同深度含水率变化图
Figure 8. Variation chart of moisture content at different depths of Dongzhangpo Village landslide mass
图 9 深度0.2 m土体含水率增量与降雨量的相关性及滞后性
Figure 9. Correlation and hysteresis between soil moisture content increment at 0.2 m depth and rainfall
图 10 深度0.7 m土体含水率增量与降雨量的相关性及滞后性
Figure 10. Correlation and hysteresis between soil moisture content increment at 0.7 m depth and rainfall
图 11 深度2.2 m处土体含水率增量与降雨量的相关性及滞后性
Figure 11. Correlation and hysteresis between soil moisture content increment at 2.2 m depth and rainfall
图 12 深度3.2 m处土体含水率增量与降雨量的相关性及滞后性
Figure 12. Correlation and hysteresis between soil moisture content increment at 3.2 m depth and rainfall
图 13 深度4.2 m处土体含水量与降雨量的相关性及滞后性
Figure 13. Correlation and hysteresis between soil water content at 4.2 m depth and rainfall
图 14 地表位移增量与深度0.2 m处土体含水率增量的相关性及滞后性
Figure 14. Correlation and hysteresis between surface displacement increment and soil moisture content increment at 0.2 m depth
图 15 地表位移增量与深度0.7 m处土体含水率增量的相关性及滞后性
Figure 15. Correlation and hysteresis between surface displacement increment and soil moisture content increment at 0.7 m depth
图 16 地表位移增量与深度1.2 m处土体含水率增量的相关性及滞后性
Figure 16. Correlation and hysteresis between surface displacement increment and soil moisture content increment at 1.2 m depth
图 17 地表位移增量与深度1.5 m处土体含水率增量的相关性及滞后性
Figure 17. Correlation and hysteresis between surface displacement increment and soil moisture content increment at 1.5 m depth
图 18 地表位移增量与深度2.2 m处土体含水率增量的相关性及滞后性
Figure 18. Correlation and hysteresis between surface displacement increment and soil moisture content increment at 2.2 m depth
图 19 地表位移增量与深度3.2 m处土体含水率增量的相关性及滞后性
Figure 19. Correlation and hysteresis between surface displacement increment and soil moisture content increment at 3.2 m depth
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