Displacement Prediction About Huangci Landslide Based on Verhulst Model With Its Realization in Excel VBA

Taking the forecast and prediction of the Huangci landslide displacement-time for example, through the analysis of landslide engineering geology condition, origin, occurring and developing process, combining with the displacement-time data of the ground monitor pile and the displacement monitor instrument, the research thought of the landslide displacement forecast and prediction by using the Verhulst model is summarized. Based on it, compiling the landslide forecast and prediction program with the inlaid VBA language in Excel, to solve the difficulty on manual computation. Through the example analysis, and comparing the Verhulst model and GM(1,1) model forecasting result with the actual monitoring result, confirming the applicability of the Verhulst model which is used in landslide displacement forecast and prediction as well as the reliability of the program. The result indicated that the Verhulst model is suitable to forecast just before sliding for the landslide, while the GM (1,1) model is suitable to the medium-short term forecast. The impending sliding time of the Huangci landslide which is forecasted by the Verhulst model is between January 26, 1995 and January 27, 1995, and the result is complied with the actual sliding time, which indicated that it's feasible to use the Verhulst model for landslide forecast and prediction.